Powerline networking has traditionally been the dark horse in the home networking stakes. Despite its considerable potential, it has been bogged down in the research and development stage for far too long. However, against the backdrop of a tech market in turmoil, powerline networking looks ready to emerge. The technology works, early silicon is ready and the products are coming.

Powerline has a Promising Future…
The advantages of powerline networking are considerable. There is typically at least one power outlet in every room in a house. In comparison, the phoneline alternative (HomePNA) offers far fewer outlets per home. On the other hand, wireless local area network (WLAN) solutions can cover most areas within the home, but they can be more expensive than powerline solutions. Therefore, powerline technology theoretically strikes a good balance between coverage and cost.

Another way to look at the viability of powerline technology is to consider which wired and wireless protocols will be successful. In the wireless space, the 802.11 family of protocols are likely to be dominant. In the wired realm, the choice in the "no new wires" market boils down to phoneline (HomePNA) versus powerline. While HomePNA solutions were first to market and have established themselves, there is still a place for another wired protocol that can provide more pervasive connection options.

Allied Business Intelligence (ABI) expects that perhaps the greatest potential for powerline networking technology lies in the next generation of line-powered consumer electronics devices, including Internet appliances, that are in need of a local connectivity solution. These devices need a solution that is cost-effective, robust and can be enabled in virtually any location in the home.

…But Many Challenges Remain
There are still important hurdles that powerline technology must face before it fulfills its promise. The challenges are of both a technical and a market nature.

Without a doubt, the powerline represents the most challenging medium over which to transmit signals. It is a noisy environment because of household appliance switching actions. In addition, it suffers problems because it is part of an unterminated network with many outlets. Attenuation and security are serious issues, the latter especially so in multi-unit housing. In short, real world performance remains an issue, though most indications are that it should be acceptable.

One of the traditional criticisms of powerline technology has been the prevalence of unique, proprietary approaches. The industry-wide desire to consolidate on one standard or de facto standards effort led to the formation of the HomePlug Powerline Alliance (HomePlug).

HomePlug brings together many of the major home networking powerline ingredient providers and other key home networking players (chiefly silicon and equipment vendors), legitimizing the powerline solution as a viable home networking option. Companies such as Intellon (whose technology underpins the 10-Mbps HomePlug 1.0 specification), Cogency, Conexant, Enikia and Telewise are expected to provide HomePlug silicon. However, other powerline silicon developers continue to promote proprietary alternatives to HomePlug. These companies include Inari (which is already shipping its 2 Mbps silicon), Itran, Adaptive Networks, nSine and PolyTrax.

Virtually all of the major powerline silicon companies developing competing solutions to HomePlug are expected to be active in the Consumer Electronics Association's R7.3 Committee, which is working on its own powerline specification. Though the momentum behind this effort is considerably less than that behind HomePlug, it could serve as an important counterpoint, especially since it will be an official standard.

Other than possible continued technology fragmentation, powerline also faces regulatory hurdles. Powerline solutions, like phoneline solutions, are unintentional radiators. Emissions can potentially cause interference with radio, television, community antenna television (CATV), telephone and DSL services. Emissions and interference concerns can be a big issue for powerline solutions.

In the US, FCC Part 15 governs the maximum electromagnetic interference (EMI) of unintentional radiators in the home, such as powerline solutions. HomePlug is confident that its solutions will be just under the FCC Part 15 limits.

However, US emission rules are among the most generous in the world. Europe and most Asian countries have significantly stricter regulations, which would almost surely require changes to the HomePlug base technology before HomePlug-compliant products could be marketed there. The European regulation EN 55022 (CISPR22) is significantly more stringent than FCC Part 15.

From a market perspective, powerline networking technology faces potentially serious competition from WLAN solutions. While powerline chipsets are expected to be cheaper than wireless ones in the short run, they need to remain so over the long term. With 802.11b wireless chipsets being driven down in cost, they pose a threat to powerline solutions. Powerline needs to have a decisive cost advantage over wireless solutions because powerline cannot provide the mobility that WLAN solutions can.

Moreover, next generation 5 GHz WLAN solutions will have significantly higher data rates than the emerging generation of powerline solutions. So, at least for the time being, powerline cannot carve out a niche as the highest data rate solution.

What does the Future Hold?
Though powerline networking has overcome some of the natural industry skepticism engendered by countless powerline vaporware announcements, there are still legitimate concerns that need to be addressed. The good news is that first-generation products will be available this year, and this will allow powerline technology to begin the next step of its maturation process.

HomePlug-enabled powerline products will be available in the last quarter of 2001 from the likes of SonicBlue and Phonex Broadband. This will set the stage for a more significant ramp up of powerline-enabled solutions in 2002. At least in the near term, ABI expects that high-speed powerline technology will be limited to the North American market, in large part due to regulatory issues. Significant international market penetration is unlikely before 2003.

A healthy market opportunity remains for the powerline component providers. ABI's forecast is that the global powerline silicon market will be worth $174 million by 2006, up from under $10 million this year.

Allied Business Intelligence Inc is an Oyster Bay, NY-based technology research think tank and consultancy that offers expert advice and research on wireless, broadband, and emerging technologies. Details can be found at www.alliedworld.com or by calling 516-624-3113.