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No apparent factors from a technology perspective exist that would hinder the delivery of the required level of reliability tomorrow. What is required is some company to decide to put the necessary software design at the top of their priority list, and then test, test, test, until the product is complete and fully functional. The company that does this first will own the market. |
Charles Glorioso is the Business Unit Manager for Home Automation and Utility Services (HAUS) at Diablo Research Company. His division has been responsible for RF and PLC products for AMR and Home Automation, including the WhisperÔ product and significant portions of the PG&E/TCI/Microsoft Energy Information Services (EIS) trial. He has an M.S.E.E. from the Illinois Institute of Technology, and over 30 years of experience in developing, and managing the development of electronics products for video, imaging and communications. Previous industry experience includes Orchid Technology, General Parametrics, Calcomp, Datapoint, Teletype, and the Exploratorium Science Museum in San Francisco. Mr. Glorioso has been with DRC for over four years. |
The term "senior citizen" does not usually co-exist with "high tech," but as increasingly technology- savvy baby boomers begin to reach senior status, their power as a market demographic means that technology manufacturers are looking for ways to capitalize on the size of this market. The population of older adults in the U.S. is expected to surge between 2010 and 2030. The Administration on Aging estimates that people over 65 will represent 20% of the American population by 2030, as compared to 13% in 2000.
So, who will these consumers be? Empty nesters, frequently looking for a smaller place to live with less upkeep and more freedom to travel. People who are increasingly aware of physical changes – they may not see as well, hear as well, move as quickly as they used to. People who are interested in maintaining an independent lifestyle as long as physically possible and are willing to pay for the technology that lets them do that. People whose needs for personal safety, security and communications can be met with technology.
Developments in home automation technology could converge with this
growth in the senior population to create a new industry – one that brings technology
solutions into the home to meet the special needs of older consumers.
Home automation has been "poised on the brink" of large scale success for years. As early as 1994, a "Future Home" in Northern Baltimore was opened as a demonstration of the use of "Environmental Control Units" (ECU) to provide increased independence for disabled persons. Previous industry growth forecasts however, have been optimistic, to say the least. A serious case of chicken and egg syndrome has hampered the industry, as standards like CEBus and LONWORKS have been adopted, but no major customers have stepped forward to commercialize the technology on a large scale. Without mainstream market support, manufacturers have been hesitant to commit to the large volume production needed to create products at a price point the mainstream market will buy. For a while, it looked like the utility industry, in its search for value-added services would step up to stimulate the home automation market. But uncertainties related to deregulation combined with soft stock market support for leading-edge utilities has cooled this prospect.
"1998 Accident Facts", published by the National Safety Council indicated that in the 75 and older age bracket, 10,600 deaths in 1997 were due to accidents sustained in the home. The nexus of a large, affluent senior citizen population with technological advances that are bringing down the cost of home automation elements could well be the boost the industry has long sought.
It’s 2015. Tom and Cheryl Sullivan are in their mid-sixties, classic boomers. They sold their four-bedroom home in the suburbs when the last of their children graduated from college and moved to a townhouse complex closer to city services like hospitals and shopping areas. They also have a vacation home on a lake an hour and a half away. Both are retired, and live comfortably on their pensions and investment income. Their townhouse features several home automation products integrated as a system which help them live safely and comfortably now, and they hope will help them remain independent for many years to come; as they are faced with increasing physical, visual and hearing challenges.
Each room in their house has a wall mounted wireless communications unit with many functions. They can use it for hands-free, voice-activate telephone calls – Tom walks into his study, says "Call Julie," and can talk to his granddaughter as he cleans off his desk. Cheryl, potting some plants in the kitchen says "Play CD #1" and music fills the room. "Softer, please," she says, and the volume is reduced. As she’s washing her hands, she says "Turn the left rear burner on," and the stove begins to heat the water in the teakettle. After her tea, she goes upstairs to shower. "Turn the shower on to massage setting #4," she says, "at temperature setting #2." The shower will also detect a fall and send out an emergency call if there is either no response from the victim, or a response like "get help".
Incoming phone calls are directed to a room with someone in it, through a vision chip in each wall unit that can recognize occupied rooms. Their home automation system also tells them when someone’s at the front door, and a small video camera mounted at the door communicates with the wall unit so they can see who’s there. Most important for future independence are the safety-related functions. The vision chip in the wall unit will be able to "see" if Tom or Cheryl falls down and can call for help automatically, without requiring the push of a button. Also, breathing can be monitored at night and call for help placed if normal patterns are disrupted.
The wall units are networked although the interface is transparent to the Sullivans. In emergencies, voice-activated messages can be sent to the people they programmed in: doctors, hospitals, their children. The Sullivan’s utilities are hooked in, too: they can access their records to see how much energy they’re consuming. They have their lake home hooked in, so that they receive instant notification if the power fails up there, so they can take steps to keep pipes from freezing or save frozen foods. The wall units control the home’s heating and air conditioning systems, through preprogrammed settings or voice activation. They can also call when they’re on the way home, so that when they get there, lights will be on and the thermostat turned up or down.
Many homes today feature certain home automation functions like programmable thermostats, motion sensitive lighting and automatic sprinkler systems. Examples of the technology for more advanced functions exist today. The Microsoft cordless telephone allows voice-activated dialing. You can tell it to "call Mom" and it will. Doorbells that flash the lights have been available for years, and there are numerous examples of high-end customized home automation systems, like Bill Gate’s fully automated home in Washington state. Bringing home automation into the price range of a large number of people is the key. The average PC now has enough computing power to perform reasonably accurate speech recognition. When standard wireless components are ready for the market, the wall units in the Sullivan’s house will be simple and easy to install.
CMOS-based vision chips with some recognition capability and DSP chips with additional processing capability are now in existence. Recognition software is next – and it’s not too far off. The wired and wireless protocols needed to support products like the ones the Sullivans enjoy, and the chipsets needed to implement them are within about 18 months of the ability to be embedded in products. Many companies have made commitments to roll these products out.
The missing technology factor needed to make this all come together is RELIABILITY. In order for a system to be usable by those whose age limits mobility and other skills, it must be totally bulletproof. It must operate perfectly, from the day of installation - no software upgrades to fix bugs (unless via a user-transparent method), and no need to go through a restart procedure following a power outage. In fact, neither a keyboard, mouse or system monitor can be required. For the technology described here to be usable in this application, it must reach the level of a black box appliance. If PC’s appear pretty reliable now, ask yourself, "when the last time was that the furnace needed to be rebooted?" That is the level of reliability that is required to enable this market.
When will that happen? The required hardware exists, but often at a higher price point than that of your average PC. Some embedded software applications are available already, including the solution found in your furnace, if it was purchased within the last ten years or so. Even in sophisticated operating systems like UNIX, stable, reliable systems have been delivered. No apparent factors from a technology perspective exist that would hinder the delivery of the required level of reliability tomorrow. What is required is some company to decide to put the necessary software design at the top of their priority list, and then test, test, test, until the product is complete and fully functional. The company that does this first will own the market.
At Diablo Research Company ( www.diabloresearch.com ) customers appear at our door regularly, asking us to design pieces of such a system. It is likely that some of these systems will be on the market by year-end. The PC that is smart enough to provide every needed capability that has been discussed is now in the $500 range. The DSPs, Vision chips, and radio chips needed to implement the remote sensors and control elements exist now at affordable prices. As the customer base ages, and the total vision is translated into the design of an integrated system, a large enough market will be created to support Smart Home packages in mass production.
Diablo Research Company is an engineering services company headquartered in the Silicon Valley with more than 15 years experience serving the needs of high technology customers for cutting edge design and project management. DRC employs more than 170 engineers with recognized expertise in wireless/mobile communications, networking, telephony, and home automation/utility services. The company's client base has included Motorola, Fujitsu, AT&T, Philips Electronics, PG&E, Siemens, Nokia, 3Com, GE and many others.
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