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| EMagazine Volume 6 Issue 1 Feb / Mar 2001 |
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This year holds great possibilities for residential technologies, but one must be wary of the shaky economic outlook in the US that could serve to temporarily slow growth in the areas mentioned above. Nevertheless, I expect an exciting year ahead, with tremendous industry progress in most segments. |
I thought I would take a somewhat different approach to this issue’s article. Instead of doing a focused piece, I am going to give my quick (and candid) takes on where a range of home networking and automation technologies, as well as related areas, will be heading this year.
Phoneline Networking (HomePNA) – Look for players such as Broadcom, Lucent and Conexant to really push HomePNA 2.0 technology into embedded implementations, specifically in PCs, Internet appliances and residential gateways. HomePNA technology will also begin to appear in a range of quasi-consumer electronics items such as digital audio receivers (MP3 Jukeboxes).
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IEEE 802.11a – Despite the seductive appeal of 54 Mbps don’t expect 802.11a-compliant consumer products to hit the shelves this year.
HomeRF – This is a critical year for HomeRF technology; it needs to show that it will become more than a niche player. Look for so-called wideband frequency hopping (WBFH) products in the second half of the year that should allow HomeRF to match 802.11b in terms of data rates.
Bluetooth – Bluetooth adapters and access points will make their impact felt by late summer. However, volume shipments of embedded implementations in notebooks, personal digital assistants (PDA) and mobile handsets will likely happen only by the end of 2001. Expect tremendous scrutiny of Bluetooth with particular attention to real-world interoperability, security and cost. You should expect to see more than a handful of premature, and frankly incorrect, news stories declaring Bluetooth technology a failure. Expect a resurgence of optimism in Bluetooth in 2002 when silicon prices get driven down and the Bluetooth specification stabilizes.
Powerline Networking – In the first half of the year Inari-enabled powerline networking solutions should begin hitting the market. However, HomePlug-compliant products should be available in the second half of the year. Tremendous attention will be focused on the real-world performance of these products and what percentage of homes these will acceptably work in.
Broadband Delivery Residential Gateways – This will be a tough year for residential gateway vendors focused on the DSL space. The seeming collapse of the competitive local exchange carriers (CLEC) will slowdown the rollout of home gateways. However, I expect the incumbent local exchange carriers (ILEC) to begin to actively jump on the gateway bandwagon later in the year. In the cable space, expect the key operators to move stealthily, but decisively in conjunction with CableLab efforts. In particular, look for the key digital set-top box vendors to better articulate their residential gateway strategies, with an emphasis on supporting “no new wires” home networking technologies.
Utility-Centric (Telemetry) Residential Gateways – This space should continue to heat up, with Invensys and Echelon joining the likes of Coactive Networks. With the flawed US deregulation policy that has contributed to an energy generation shortfall, look for interest in this area to increase exponentially. All eyes will remain focused on Sensel’s large-scale deployment in Sweden of Coactive’s gateways so that the finer points in structuring a business model around narrowband e-services can be scrutinized.
Structured Wiring – Structured wiring will continue to grow at a rapid pace this year, but vendors will increasingly look to differentiate their product lines, with a view to embracing “no new wires” home networking technologies and attacking the retrofit market. There should be some key announcements on the horizon pertaining to the latter. However, industry participants must remain wary of the impact the slowing new home construction market will have on the demand for technology infrastructure that raises the cost of new homes.
Home Automation (i.e., Control Networking) Protocols – LonWorks and emWare are poised for greater adoption by home automation and smart appliance vendors. Microsoft’s Simple Control Protocol (SCP) should emerge from under wraps, but SCP-enabled products may not appear until early 2002.
Smart Appliances – More white-goods manufacturers will begin to develop intelligent control networking-enabled products. The key will be to distinguish press releases and prototypes from actual products ready for volume shipment. In all likelihood 2002 will be a more pivotal year for these types of devices mainly because there is no real industry consensus on control networking protocols yet.
Internet Appliances – Internet appliances (IA) should post robust growth rates, albeit from an admittedly small base. Look for dropping memory and display prices to spur increased visibility of web tablets and email clients. Another important component for success will be increased home networking support. However, industry goals may be out of synch with the realistic penetration rates that can be achieved based on gradual consumer acceptance.
A Last Word
This year holds great possibilities for residential technologies, but one must be wary of the shaky economic outlook in the US that could serve to temporarily slow growth in the areas mentioned above. Nevertheless, I expect an exciting year ahead, with tremendous industry progress in most segments.
Navin Sabharwal is Director of Residential & Networking Technologies with Allied Business Intelligence. His latest study is titled “Home Automation Systems and IP-Based Control.”
Allied Business Intelligence Inc is an Oyster Bay, NY-based technology research think tank specializing in communications and emerging technology markets. ABI publishes strategic research on the broadband, wireless, electronics, networking and energy industries. Details of these studies can be found at www.alliedworld.com , or call 516-624-3113 for more information.
