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| EMagazine Volume 4 Issue 4 August 1999 |
Features
Interviews
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| Home Toys Article - August99 - [HTI Home Page] |
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No matter to what degree features are integrated into Windows the reality is that until the platform is considered stable enough to control vital subsystems of the home that the PC is going to be marginalized as home automation gradually migrates into the broader market. |
Navin
Sabharwal is an analyst with Allied Business Intelligence, covering residential networking
approaches and related areas. His latest report on this area is titled "Residential
Structured Wiring and Cabling Systems: Industry Trends, Player Assessment, Market
Segmentation and Forecasts". |
The number of computing industry participants and observers saying that the PC era is over appears to be growing on a daily basis. Indeed there is a widespread belief that the lure of the Internet will result in the development of a new class of information appliances without the complexity of PCs. While these comments may seem premature given PCs continue to get ever cheaper and shipments continue to grow it does accurately reflect the product developments currently underway. This raises some questions about role the PC will play in the future of home automation and residential networking systems.
At present it appears that the PC is very much the most important component of in-home data networks. This market has only begun to emerge over the last 18 months and it would seem strange to suggest that the PC will lose relevancy. In the medium term the PC will remain the primary device in the home local area network (LAN).
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However, as the processing power continues to become even more inexpensive it will make more sense to install the processing power and software directly onto dedicated controllers. The result will almost certainly reverse the trend that has made the PC a required part of many home automation systems.
The fundamental problem with the PC is that it has failed to evolve into a better platform from which to run a home automation system. Unlike data networks, control and monitoring networks have a more critical requirement for platform stability. People utilizing systems such as IBM Home Director (the X-10 version) and ActiveHome are very much early adopters. In order to penetrate the majority of households home automation systems will have to more intuitive and reliable. This may well be a challenge that most PC-based home automation systems are unable to surmount.
The PC operating system (OS) that most consumers use, Windows 9x, is unsuitable for critical command and control operations. The OS is not optimized to act as the center of a home automation system. The PC is not a particularly stable platform from a software perspective because it designed to handle numerous applications. As a multi-function device it fulfills its role adequately, but not well enough to be seriously considered for mass-market home automation systems. This is one of the primary reasons that many observers comment on the need for a dedicated home gateway/server device that would be unencumbered by other responsibilities.
However, things are changing on the software side. In the newly released Windows 98 Second Edition there is now home networking software included that enables modem sharing and computer networking. In addition, with Microsoft’s efforts with the Universal Plug and Play (UPnP) initiative there should be increasing networking functionality in future consumer versions of Windows. Indeed it is understood that Microsoft is particularly working on adding capabilities to its first consumer OS based on the NT kernel (dubbed Neptune), which is due out in 2001. The aim is to integrate significantly more functionality for media, gaming and home networking purposes. However, the extent this will support home automation systems is a bit more questionable.
No matter to what degree features are integrated into Windows the reality is that until the platform is considered stable enough to control vital subsystems of the home that the PC is going to be marginalized as home automation gradually migrates into the broader market.
One trend that may appear is to move much of the interface responsibility to the television set, with the set-top box (STB) providing the processing and software needs. This is seen as a far more reliable solution in terms of augmenting home automation systems. The new generation of digital STBs will allow a range of services from Internet access to digital TV decoding depending on the configuration. Even in such a scenario the STB-enabled television would act less as a controller than as potentially only one of multiple interfaces with the home automation system.
Therefore, the move from a dedicated controller to one that interacts with a PC is a temporary one. Going forward it is expected that dedicated controllers will become increasingly important, especially as structured wiring systems begin to appear in many homes. The remainder of the control/interface features might well begin to migrate to an STB-TV paradigm, at least prior to the appearance of dedicated home server devices. The PC will remain important from a data networking standpoint, but become more of an adjunct to control networks.
Allied Business Intelligence, Inc. is an Oyster Bay, NY-based technology research think-tank specializing in communications and emerging technology markets. ABI publishes strategic research on the broadband, wireless, electronics, automation, energy and transportation industries. Details of these studies can be found at www.alliedworld.com . Or call 516-624-3113 for more info.
